The economic expansion has accelerated this year, largely due to economic stimulus from tax reform, and will likely remain strong going into 2019. The impact of tax reform will fade eventually, and continued economic growth above 3% will require stronger capital investment, a more favorable trade environment and higher productivity. [...]
Year to date, the pundits and media have had a feast of content to interpret for the public. Volatility picked up in the first quarter, and continued in the second, driven by headlines that boast varying positions on the economy, politics, immigration, global trade and tariffs. Unfortunately, bias is prevalent [...]
2018 is the 10th year of the current bull market for domestic equities. If market sentiment remains positive through the third quarter of this year, it will become the longest bull market in American history. “When will it end?” Unfortunately, no one knows or will know without the benefit of [...]
2017 was a near perfect year for equity investors, with steady global growth, low inflation and very low interest rates. Job growth was strong, with 2.06 million new jobs created. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, the lowest since 2000, and wage growth increased by 2.5%. Core CPI was up [...]
There was no shortage of events and issues to distract investors during the third quarter. North Korea continued to launch missiles (15 year to date) in defiance of the international community, and three major hurricanes caused hundreds of billions of damage in the U.S. and Caribbean. In addition, the FBI [...]
The labor market tightened further during the second quarter with the unemployment rate declining to 4.3%. Inflation remains stubbornly below the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) 2% target, but a tightening labor market may eventually place upward pressure on wages. The FOMC increased its policy interest rate an additional [...]
During the first two months of the quarter, stocks moved steadily higher on the enthusiasm and expectations of stronger economic growth, lower corporate income taxes, higher government spending on infrastructure and a more business friendly regulatory environment. The stock market reaction reflected instant success of the Trump pro-growth agenda without [...]
The financial markets ended 2016 on a strong note, defying most market prognosticators predicting doom and gloom at various times of the year. The first “Sell Everything” call of 2016 was by RBS on January 11, with many more recommendations from other pundits to reduce investment risk and “get out [...]
The S&P 500 return during the second quarter was 2.46%. The forward price earnings (PE) multiple was 16.6x at quarter end, slightly above its long term average. From its low in March 2009, when the forward PE was 10.3x, the S&P 500 has increased 210% excluding dividends. There is a [...]
March 31, 2016 2016 began on a sour note, with the domestic equity market declining by 10% during the first half of the quarter, followed by an increase of 13% to end the quarter with a modest gain. Oil prices were even more volatile, with the price of West [...]
